Correlation lies.
Causality reveals.
Two assets move together, but why? Shared driver? Direct influence? Pure coincidence? Optima uncovers the true causal structure behind returns.
Portfolio Intelligence
Explore Platform
See Optima in Action
Experience how Optima delivers causal portfolio analytics with transparent risk attribution and explainable investment insights.
Portfolio Attribution
Risk Drivers
What-If Scenario
Expected Return
+9.8%
Portfolio Vol
10.5%
Performance Metrics
Expected Return
+0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Portfolio weighted 42% toward interest rate sensitivity. All decisions traceable to causal factors for compliance.
The $10 trillion correlation trap
Correlation-based models dominate finance, but they have fundamental flaws. They can't explain risk or adapt to market shifts.
78%
Of factor models rely on correlation, not causation
40%
Performance degradation when regimes shift
0%
Ability to explain 'why' to clients or regulators
Two assets. Two stories.
Asset A and Asset B are 0.85 correlated. Should you hedge one with the other?
Correlation says: Yes
Recommendation:
"Hedge Asset A with Asset B to reduce portfolio variance"
What could go wrong?
If correlation breaks (regime change, hidden driver shifts), your hedge becomes a double loss
Optima says: No
Discovery:
"Both assets are driven by Factor X. No direct causal link. Not a hedge."
Optima Recommendation:
Hedge Factor X directly. Asset B won't protect you, it will amplify losses when X shifts.
Real Example
2022 Tech Drawdown
Funds using correlation-based hedges saw both their tech positions and their "hedges" decline simultaneously. Causality-aware managers identified the shared driver (interest rates) and hedged appropriately, avoiding compounded losses.
Simulate before you trade
Test rebalancing decisions with causal confidence
What-If Scenario
Interest Rates
+50 bps
Fed hikes by 0.5%
Energy Exposure
-10%
Reduce sector weight
Duration
5.2 → 4.1
Shorten bond duration
Predicted Impact
Expected Return
+9.2%
+1.8% vs. baseline
Portfolio Risk
14.3%
-2.1% volatility reduction
Sharpe Ratio
0.72
+0.15 improvement
Optima Recommendation:
Execute rebalance. Expected to improve risk-adjusted returns with 87% confidence.
Built for compliance and reporting
Every decision in Optima comes with a full causal audit trail. Perfect for regulatory reporting and client explanations.
Full Attribution
Trace every return back to its causal drivers
Scenario Documentation
Complete audit trail for what-if analyses
Regulatory Reports
Export causal explanations for compliance
Integrations